歷史總是驚人的相似。與共享單車一樣，無人貨架出現不過一兩年，就經歷了從各方混戰到頭部之戰兩個階段。在持續不斷的燒錢點位大戰中，無人貨架實現了野蠻生長，最終卻因為太過“野蠻”導致市場荒涼遍生。滿目瘡痍的無人貨架被眾人高唱涼涼之際，巨頭卻開始強勢入場。面對巨頭強有力的入局，無人貨架市場將發生什么變化？猩便利、果小美等頭部玩家又將面臨什么樣的困境？
History is always strikingly similar. Unmanned shelves, like shared bicycles, have gone through two stages, from melee to head battle, in just a year or two. Unmanned shelves grew savagely during the ongoing money-burning war, but ultimately the market was desolate because of excessive savagery. When the devastated unmanned shelves were cool, the giants began to enter. What will happen to the market of unmanned shelves in the face of powerful entry of giants? What kind of dilemma will face players such as the convenience of the stars and the players play?
1.無人貨架之殤
1. unmanned shelves
2017年，新零售火遍大江南北，搭載著新零售的風口，無人概念快速升溫，無人便利店、無人貨架等行業如雨后春筍般紛紛冒出。其中，無人貨架作為搶占辦公室等新型消費場景的項目更是受到眾人廣泛的關注。持續發酵的市場引得資本瘋狂加注，各路玩家不斷入場。
In 2017, the new retail fire across the Yangtze River, carrying a new retail outlet, no one concept of rapid heating, no one convenience stores, no one shelves and other industries have sprung up like mushrooms. Among them, unmanned shelves as a new type of consumption scenarios such as office grabbing project is widely concerned. The continuous fermentation market leads to capital crazily filling, and players continue to enter.
據新浪科技不完全統計，2017年到2018年年初，無人貨架這個火得發熱的賽道就已經席卷了30億真金白銀，入局其中的玩家更是達到50多個。
According to incomplete statistics from Sina Technologies, from 2017 to early 2018, unmanned shelves have swept over 3 billion real gold and silver, including more than 50 players.
餓了么推出無人值守貨架e點便利，京東到家GO投入市場，順豐打造無人貨架一站式平臺豐e足食，另外還有七只考拉、猩便利、果小美、便利蜂等玩家相繼進。經過眾多玩家一輪一輪的角逐之后，無人貨架頭部玩家開始凸顯，以猩便利和果小美為例。
Hungry to launch unmanned shelves e-point convenience, Jingdong to go home GO into the market, Shunfeng to build unmanned shelves one-stop platform abundant e-food, and seven koalas, chimpanzee convenience, fruit Xiaomei, convenience bees and other players have moved forward. After a round-robin battle, unmanned shelf-head players began to stand out, taking Chimpanzee Convenience and Guo Xiaomei for example.
猩便利：從進入無人貨架，猩便利就成為行業中當之無愧的黑馬，在短短的時間里，猩便利就已經對外宣布完成超1億元的天使輪融資，緊接著又開始宣布再獲由紅杉資本領投的3.8億元A1輪投資。巨額融資使得猩便利擁有了與其他勢力斗爭的資本，在資本的助力下，猩便利成功打下自己的一片天。
Chimpanzee Convenience: Since entering the unmanned shelves, Chimpanzee Convenience has become a well-deserved black horse in the industry. In a short period of time, Chimpanzee Convenience has announced the completion of more than 100 million rounds of angel financing, followed by the announcement of a further $380 million A1 round of investment led by Sequoia Capital. The huge amount of financing makes it easy for the orangutans to have the capital to fight with other forces. With the help of capital, the orangutans can successfully lay down their own day.
果小美：毫無疑問，果小美的發展歷程和猩便利頗為相似，在30億融資的市場中，果小美憑著一己之力吸引了超過6億元的融資，投資方包括IDG資本、藍馳創投、峰瑞資本等。能夠吞下如此巨額的資本，果小美的實力毋庸置疑。
Guo Xiaomei: Undoubtedly, the course of development of Guo Xiaomei is quite similar to that of chimpanzee. In the 3 billion-dollar financing market, Guo Xiaomei attracted more than 600 million yuan of financing by herself. Investors include IDG Capital, Lanchi Venture Capital and Fengrui Capital. The ability to swallow such huge amounts of capital is beyond doubt.
隨著頭部玩家效應漸顯，流血過多的玩家逐漸黯然離場，無人貨架市場爭奪戰從各方混戰走向頭部斗爭。然而，隨著頭部玩家戰爭越發激烈，野蠻生長下的無人貨架開始問題頻現，不斷累加的問題使得市場開始崩盤，猩便利、果小美等頭部玩家均受到嚴重沖擊。
As the effect of the head player becomes more obvious, bloodshed players gradually fade away from the scene, unmanned shelf market battle from all sides to the head of the scramble. However, as the war between the head players becomes more and more intense, the barbaric growth of unmanned shelves began to occur frequently, cumulative problems make the market began to collapse, chimpanzee convenience, Ko Xiaomei and other head players are severely affected.
2018年上半年，無人貨架市場被相繼爆出撤站、裁員、資金鏈斷裂等消息。其中，猩便利被媒體爆出正在關閉貨架縮減規模。有消息稱，猩便利目前已經將三四線城市中的無人貨架撤離，隨后，又被傳出企業的資金鏈斷裂，裁員現象時有出現。果小美也被爆出相似的負面消息，因拖欠欠款被供應商封倉，原本已經和阿里定下的融資合作卻慘遭反悔，拖欠員工工資等。而導致兩大玩家問題頻出的原因，也正是無人貨架行業岌岌可危的根本原因。
In the first half of 2018, the market of unmanned shelves was broken out, including layoffs, layoffs, capital chain breakage and so on. Among them, the convenience of the star is being reduced by the media. Sources say that Chimpanzee Convenience has now evacuated unmanned shelves in the third and fourth-tier cities, and then was rumored to break the capital chain of enterprises, layoffs occur from time to time. Goo Xiaomei was also exposed similar negative news, due to arrears by suppliers closed warehouses, had already been set up with Aridine financing cooperation has been miserably regretted, arrears in employees'wages and so on. And the causes of the two major players'problems, is also the root cause of the unmanned shelf industry in jeopardy.
一方面，供應鏈是阻礙行業朝前發展的關鍵因素。無人貨架雖然玩的是新概念，但本質上仍隸屬零售行業，對于零售行業來說，供應鏈的完善與否在一定程度上決定了行業的發展。就目前看來，大部分的無人貨架企業在供應鏈上存在的問題非常多。
On the one hand, supply chain is a key factor that hinders the development of the industry. Although unmanned shelves are playing a new concept, they still belong to the retail industry in essence. For the retail industry, whether the supply chain is perfect or not determines the development of the industry to a certain extent. At present, most of the unmanned shelf enterprises have many problems in the supply chain.
倉儲、物流、配送這一套完整的供應鏈體系自建的周期太長，且成本太高，大部分的無人貨架玩家都不會花精力和時間去打造。絕大多數的無人貨架企業并沒有自營的供應鏈體系，在企業規模尚小之際，還可通過O2O方式解決供應鏈問題，可一旦企業開始擴大規模，企業的供應鏈問題就會逐漸顯露，在點位擴張愈演愈烈時，供應鏈問題就會成為無法忽視的存在。例如日常補貨和損耗將會造成企業運營問題頻繁出現，以及貨品的品質出現抖動、鋪設效率慢等問題。
Warehousing, logistics, distribution of this complete supply chain system self-built cycle is too long, and the cost is too high, most of the unmanned shelf players will not spend energy and time to build. The vast majority of unmanned shelf enterprises have no self-operated supply chain system, and can also solve the supply chain problem by the way of O2 when the scale of the enterprise is still small. But once the enterprise begins to expand its scale, the supply chain problem will gradually emerge, and when the point expansion is becoming more and more intense, the supply chain problem will become a problem that can not be ignored. The existence of. For example, daily replenishment and loss will cause frequent business problems, as well as the quality of goods jitter, slow laying efficiency and other issues.
另一方面，成本問題是市場崩盤的幕后推手。任何商業模式的運轉都需要利潤進行支撐，但很顯然，無人貨架現階段的商業模式實現的利潤還不足以支撐起行業運轉所需要的成本。與傳統便利店按照統一時間補貨，費用由供應商承擔的方式不同，無人貨架由于補貨周期不穩定，采購方式通常都是由供貨商集中運送到倉庫，然后企業再進行逐個分配，中間增加的流通環節費用基本都要企業自掏腰包，這在無形之中增加了企業的采購成本。加上無人貨架的走貨量規模較小，在成本議價上所占優勢不大，采購成本相對而言會相應增加。除此之外，無人貨架高進場費用和高貨損率也是導致企業運營成本居高不下的主要原因。
On the other hand, cost is the driving force behind the market crash. The operation of any business model requires profit support, but it is clear that the profit achieved by the current business model of unmanned shelves is not enough to support the cost of the operation of the industry. Unlike traditional convenience stores where replenishments are made at the same time and costs are borne by suppliers, unmanned shelves are usually transported centrally from suppliers to warehouses because of the unstable replenishment cycle, and then the enterprises distribute the replenishments one by one. The cost of purchasing is increased. In addition, the unmanned shelf volume is small, and it has little advantage in cost bargaining, so the procurement cost will increase correspondingly. In addition, unmanned shelf high entry costs and high freight loss rate are also the main reasons for the high operating costs of enterprises.
沒有褥到羊毛之前，以猩便利為首的無人貨架企業之間開始進行點位戰，幾乎所有的企業都在瘋狂、盲目的擴張規模，而這種只重數量不重質量的擴張方式對于原本就需要高額成本支出的行業來說無疑是雪上加霜。
No mattress to wool before, with the convenience of chimpanzees led by unmanned shelf enterprises to start a point war, almost all enterprises are crazy, blind expansion of scale, and this only weight quantity does not weight quality expansion side.
2.無巨頭入局救場
2. no giant entry Bureau save field
無人貨架有望煥發生機？
Unmanned shelves are promising?
在這樣的背景下，無人貨架頭部企業猩便利、果小美等陷入進退不得的尷尬處境。這種狀態持續了半年，終于迎來了新的轉機。
In this context, the unmanned shelf head enterprise chimpanzee convenience, Ko Xiaomei, etc. into the embarrassing situation. This situation lasted for half a year, and finally ushered in a new turning point.
2018年6月，無人貨架頭部企業猩便利獲得螞蟻金服戰略投資，其他老股東悉數跟投。這次的戰略投資中，猩便利除了獲得資金投資外，還將得到螞蟻金服向其提供的技術支持，例如生物識別技術、信用消費體系等。果小美也被傳已完成新一輪融資。此外，早前每日優鮮便利購就宣布要分拆為獨立的子公司，并完成2億美元融資，投資方包括了騰訊等巨頭。這類消息的出現對于無人貨架來說無疑是久旱逢甘霖。可以預見，巨頭入局，無人貨架的確有望煥發生機。
In June 2018, the unmanned shelf head enterprise gorillas facilitate access to ant gold clothing strategic investment, all other old shareholders follow. In this strategic investment, chimpanzees will not only get the capital investment, but also get the technical support provided to them by ants'gold clothes, such as biometric identification technology, credit consumption system and so on. Guo Xiaomei was also reported to have completed a new round of financing. In addition, the Daily Fresh Convenience Buy announced earlier that it would split into independent subsidiaries and complete a $200 million financing, investors including Tencent and other giants. The emergence of such news is undoubtedly a long drought for the unmanned shelves. It is foreseeable that the giant's entry into the market and the unmanned shelves are indeed looking promising.
一來，無人貨架有著真實的市場需求。在消費升級的大背景下，場景化需求所占比重越來越大，然而，隨著資本的挖掘，其他場景基本已經被布滿，例如在家有外賣、購物，出門有商超。就現階段來說，還處于空白地帶的場景就是辦公室，學校等地方。這些地方的主力人群每天都要在場景中待上8—10小時，甚至是更長時間。在漫長的時間里，這些人群在吃喝方面會產生極大的需求，而無人貨架又是比外賣和樓下便利店距離更近的存在。因此，這些人群對無人貨架上的產品有著天然的需求。
First, there is a real market demand for unmanned shelves. In the context of consumption upgrade, the proportion of scene demand is increasing. However, with the development of capital, other scenes have been basically full, such as take-out at home, shopping, going out and shopping. At the present stage, the scene in the blank area is offices, schools and so on. The main crowd in these places stays in the scene for 8 to 10 hours a day, or even longer. Over a long period of time, these people will have a great demand for food and drink, and no one's shelves are closer than takeout and downstairs convenience stores. Therefore, these people have natural needs for products on unmanned shelves.
二來，無人貨架盲目擴張的點位戰已經停止。經歷過瘋狂擴張帶來血一般的教訓后，無人貨架的市場逐步恢復冷靜。猩便利、果小美等頭部玩家摒棄了以往只重數量的發展戰略，開始朝精細化方向布局。猩便利從無人貨架轉向智能貨柜，同時開啟了“無人貨架+便利店”新模式的發展。果小美進行戰略轉型，主攻云端電商以及現有貨架精細化運營。盲目跑馬圈地所帶來的苦果無人貨架已經嘗過，可以預見，在下個階段，無人貨架行業基本不會再出現盲目的燒錢點位大戰，而是開始走向良性競爭的階段。
Secondly, the point wars of blind expansion of unmanned shelves have stopped. After the bloody lessons of crazy expansion, the market of unmanned shelves gradually recovered. Chimpanzee convenience, Ko Xiaomei and other head players abandoned the previous development strategy of only focusing on quantity, began to refine the direction of layout. Chimpanzees conveniently switch from unmanned shelves to intelligent containers, while opening up the "unmanned shelves + convenience stores" development of a new model. Guo Xiaomei carried out strategic transformation, focusing on cloud business and sophisticated shelf operation. Blind horse race enclosure brought about by the bitter fruit of unmanned shelves have been tasted, it can be predicted that in the next stage, the unmanned shelf industry will basically no longer appear blind money-burning point war, but began to move towards a stage of benign competition.
三來，巨頭帶來的資本支撐和技術升級。無人貨架之所以死傷遍地，很大一部分原因都是源于企業資金斷裂和技術難以實現增效降本。而巨頭的進入對于無人貨架市場上還存活的頭部玩家來說，無疑是值得振奮的事情。巨頭入局往往會攜帶資本進場，資金和技術恰好是無人貨架所的弱點所在。隨著頭部玩家的資金危機被解除，供應鏈等也在巨頭的幫助下逐漸完善，無人貨架或將迎來第二春。
Third, the capital support and technological upgrading brought by the giant. The reason why unmanned shelves are so deadly and injured is largely due to the financial fragmentation of enterprises and the difficulty of technology to achieve efficiency and cost reduction. And the giant's entry into the unmanned shelf Market for surviving head players, is undoubtedly something to be excited about. Giant entry often brings capital into the field, and capital and technology are just the weaknesses of unmanned shelves. As the head of the player's financial crisis was lifted, the supply chain and so on are gradually improved with the help of the giant, no shelves or will usher in the second spring.
3.頭部玩家紛紛轉型
3. head players are in transition.
然轉型背后新的隱憂漸顯
Behind the transformation, new worries are emerging.
在巨頭的支持下，無人貨架迎來新的增長點，然而，新機遇往往會伴隨著新挑戰。在無人貨架第二春來臨之際，猩便利、果小美等頭部玩家進入寡頭之戰。隨著有效網點的減少，頭部玩家之間的競爭會越發激烈。盡管盲目的跑馬圈地已經過去，但對于無人貨架市場而言，良性競爭仍是不可避免的重要趨勢。在良性競爭中，頭部玩家之間的廝殺會更加殘忍，遇到的困難也將再次升級。
With the support of giants, unmanned shelves usher in new growth points, but new opportunities are often accompanied by new challenges. In the second spring of the unmanned shelves, the head players of the star convenience and fruit Xiaomei entered the oligopoly war. With the reduction of effective outlets, competition among the head players will become more intense. Although the blind horse race enclosure has passed, but for the unmanned shelf market, benign competition is still an inevitable important trend. In the benign competition, the fighting between the head players will be more brutal, the difficulties encountered will be escalated again.
精細化運營難度不小。無人貨架下半場，存活的玩家都知道要往精細化方向發展，然而，道理誰都懂，但實施起來仍有一定的難度。什么是精細化運營？投入產出效率最大化的運營方式，即用最小的成本獲取最大價值的流量和收益。要想實現精細化運營，玩家需要考慮到方方面面。比如，點位密度的鋪設、貨品的種類、補貨的周期，已經如何進行陳列等。這都是精細化運營中亟需解決的問題。細節決定成敗，無人貨架能否靠精細化運營扳回一城，還要看玩家精細化運營是否能給消費者帶來更好的消費體驗。
Meticulous operation is not difficult. In the second half of the unmanned rack, the surviving players knew they were going to refine, but the truth was clear to everyone, but it was still difficult to implement. What is fine operation? The operation mode of maximizing input-output efficiency is to obtain the maximum value of flow and income with the minimum cost. To achieve fine operation, players need to consider every aspect. For example, how to lay out the location density, the type of goods, the cycle of replenishment, and how to display it. All these are urgent problems to be solved in meticulous operation. Details determine success or failure, unmanned shelves can rely on refined operation to pull back a city, but also to see whether the player refined operation can bring better consumer experience.
盈利模式換湯不換藥，玩家資金壓力越來越大。智能貨柜成本更高昂，據悉，一個智能貨柜成本在6000元—1.5萬元，而且還要加上技術更迭等額外支出。在商品售賣價格不變的情況下，運營所需要的成本提高，企業能實現的利潤將一減再減。而無人貨架原本就存在難以實現盈利等問題，成本的再度拔高對于無人貨架企業來說資金壓力會更大。
The profit mode is changing, and the pressure of players is increasing. Smart containers are more expensive. It is reported that the cost of a smart container is between 6,000 yuan and 15,000 yuan, and additional expenditure such as technology change will be added. Under the condition that the selling price of commodities is unchanged, the cost of operation will be increased, and the profit that the enterprise can realize will be reduced again and again. But the unmanned shelves have been difficult to achieve profitability and other issues, the cost of re-elevation for the unmanned shelf enterprises will be greater financial pressure.
受惠于人之時還要提防予惠之人。巨頭入局更多的是基于生態布局上的考量，并不意味著無人貨架這個業態一定會有未來。現階段，巨頭已經進入流量增長瓶頸，所以對于流量的饑渴使得他們連碎片流量也不愿意放過。盡管無人貨架模式還不能實現完整的引流，但對于巨頭來說仍有獲取流量的空間，所以才會被巨頭納入旗下。然而，一旦流量進入最后枯竭，那無人貨架這個流量工兵終將落得一地雞毛。
When you are benefiting people, you should beware of those who give you benefits. The entrance of the giant is more based on ecological layout considerations, does not mean that the unmanned shelves industry will have a future. At this stage, the giant has entered the flow growth bottleneck, so the flow of hunger makes them even fragments flow is unwilling to let go. Although the unmanned shelf mode can not achieve complete drainage, but for the giant there is still room to obtain flow, so it will be included in the giant. However, once the flow enters the final exhaustion, the unmanned shelf of the flow engineer will eventually fall to the ground chicken feathers.
總的來說，無人貨架雖然狀況百出，但市場潛力不可否認，只要選對了模式，無人貨架還有東山再起的機會。現如今，巨頭齊聚無人貨架市場，無人貨架頭部玩家能否借這股東風再次起勢，仍有待觀望。毫無疑問，這次新機遇對于無人貨架頭部玩家來說可謂是背水一戰，再無退路。頭部玩家的寡頭之戰即意味著無人貨架的最后一場戰爭，天堂和地獄一線之隔，無人貨架的終點會走向哪里，決定權終究掌握在頭部玩家手里。
Generally speaking, although the situation of unmanned shelves, but the market potential is undeniable, as long as the right mode, unmanned shelves have the opportunity to rise again. Nowadays, the giants gather in the unmanned shelf market, unmanned shelf head players can take advantage of this shareholder wind again, it remains to be seen. Undoubtedly, this new opportunity for unmanned shelf head players is a backwater battle, there is no way back. The Oligopoly Battle of the Head Player means the last battle of the Unmanned Shelf, the line between heaven and hell, where the end of the Unmanned Shelf will go, the decision is ultimately in the hands of the Head Player.
轉自物流時代周刊
http://m.huashihotelguangzhou.cn
